Normalisation of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea after two decades of animosity that cost the neighbouring countries tens of thousands of casualties in fighting over territorial claims is just one of the signs of an overwhelming change in Africa. In the last few months, bloodless political change in Zimbabwe, South Africa, Angola, Ethiopia and soon Kenya and other countries that will have elections in coming months, negates the established rule of change in Africa: military coup. Though military and totalitarian regimes are still in power in many African countries, the current wave of change seems unstoppable. It’s not a so-called “African Spring” as media might exaggerate, and the argument that ruling elites in Africa are just ‘transforming’ for the sake of self-preservation might be true; yet, new generations in the continent are pursuing a route in running their countries different from the near past.
The late 19th century and early 20th century ‘scramble for Africa’ or the new-imperialism phase by European colonial powers faded completely near the end of the last century. That void was not filled by the US as some might argue, or as was the case in the Middle East for example, so the continent became a venue for other players — global and regional. New scrambles for Africa got the term ‘grab’ as they didn’t involve direct military invasions or occupations.
Resources grab
Almost a decade ago, media headlines were about ‘land grab’ in Africa where autocratic regimes were accused of selling vast areas of agricultural land to wealthy crop-importers from the Gulf, China and other countries. Though it was an inflated issue, with most of the land not agrarian or part of foreign investment projects, it was a sort of ‘scramble’ by non-Africans eyeing the fertile land of the continent. That was preceded, and is still followed, by another ‘grab’ — the so-called “resources grab”. That is mainly a Chinese ‘scramble’ for natural resources to feed the growing industrialised economy at home while creating a market for companies working in reconstruction and other sectors. Now, China has more than $100 billion of projects in Africa. Most important is that Chinese investments in Africa are with ‘no strings attached’ when it comes to politics and internal affairs of those countries.
Middle Eastern regional players were not fully out of these different ‘scrambles for Africa’ or ‘grabs’ to be more precise. Iran pioneered in this, with the help of its proxies like Lebanese Hezbollah, through immigrants working in business in African countries and elevated to be close to ruling circles. Israel also filled a void left by Egypt’s withdrawal from the continent, focusing mainly on intelligence and military training or arms sales. Yet, Russia is still the main arms supplier to Africa even with new players coming into the market like Israel and Turkey.
Though the Gulf Arab countries were associated with the scramble, some had strategic links being fostered for years now. That ‘Middle Eastern scramble for Africa’ can — arbitrarily — be divided into two categories based on its motives and outcomes for concerned players, Africa and the world. In that regard, Israel falls under a separate category more synonymous with the US, Russia and Europe approach to Africa in the last few decades. Iran, with its proxies, Turkey and Qatar focus on ‘groups’ rather than ‘states’ and channel their support to where extremism is ripe. Countries like the UAE focus on trade and development investment to support stability and sustainable peace. In central and West African countries, Lebanese business people associated with Hezbollah focus on money-laundering, circumventing sanctions on the Lebanese militia or its patron: Iran. Turkey focuses mainly on investing where so-called ‘Islamist militias’ are active as in Somalia and Libya, while Qatar pours money into countries where militant groups are active like Boko Haram in Nigeria or Al Qaida-linked groups in Mali, Libya and other countries.
Emirati interests in the Horn of Africa and in other parts of the continent are targeting development projects, enabling the economies of the countries concerned. Meanwhile, it works as a catalyst for peace and conflict resolution — as the case of the Ethiopia-Eritrea relations show. Of course one of the goals is to help these countries fight extremism and combat terrorism, nipping it in the bud by improving the living conditions of its people through economic development and social mobility. That’s why some might argue that Middle Eastern players are ‘competing in Africa’, which is somehow true but should be a complete sentence: in different scrambles — one for stability through sustained development and one for violent divisions through sectarian and religious extremism.
Hopefully, the developing Emirati-Chinese partnership incorporates interests in Africa, thus strengthening the drive for change towards better future in the continent. If one of the ‘evolution theories’ were true that man first evolved in Africa and moved east before reaching north and south, let it be the reverse now with stability and progress coming from the east to the promising continent.
Dr Ahmad Mustafa is an Abu Dhabi-based journalist.
