Everybody has felt the pace in the autumn internationals but Australia, South Africa and Argentina look pale imitations of the sides who reached the World Cup semi-finals in England two years ago
1) Scotland on the rise
England and Ireland both won their three matches but their campaigns, without the lustre of facing New Zealand, were a touch underwhelming as they were rarely extended in confirming their places in the world rankings. Scotland were arguably the team of the month, pipping Samoa in an anarchic thriller to start before taking the game to New Zealand, denied by Beauden Barrett’s try-saving tackle in the final minute. They finished by achieving the double over Australia following June’s victory in Sydney. They were aided by Sekope Kepu’s red card for dangerous play - it is right that players highlight the welfare issue which is why there is no excuse for such a reckless and potentially dangerous act - but even with a full side the Wallabies were struggling to contain an irrepressible Scotland, who were not disrupted by the loss of Stuart Hogg in the warm-up. Scotland have a high-risk approach, revelling in the unstructured, and if at times it leaves them exposed, as at Twickenham in the 2017 Six Nations, the increased openness of the international game suits them, and they are developing depth.
2) Going south
The midway point between World Cups has been passed. New Zealand remain at the top of the world rankings, using the past two years to recalibrate, but the other three semi-finalists in 2015, Australia, South Africa and Argentina, are fallible, winning four matches between them this month and losing five; factor out Italy and the victories for the southern hemisphere trio drop to two. Ireland will move above Australia to third when the rankings are updated this week to give Europe two places in the leading three while Scotland in sixth are closing in on South Africa who, but for the financial need of playing Wales in Cardiff on Saturday in an extra match, would be starting their holiday. It has been a familiar month for Wales so far, taking something out of defeats while struggling in their tier two fixture, but France continue to drift, drawing against Japan on Saturday after the visitors missed a routine conversion and being outscored on tries while Italy are stumbling at the bottom, tryless against Argentina and South Africa.
3) On the run
There was a time when teams from the south would do neck exercises before their European tours, preparing for the aerial assaults that would be launched at them. Kick and clap was how the game in the four home unions used to be derided but, allowing for Ireland’s continued tactical kicking, there has been a change in emphasis with even Wales, who for years made up for their lack of strength in depth by pushing opponents to their physical limit, keeping the ball in hand rather than in the air. England have resisted a bulky midfield under Eddie Jones, having the ability to pull away from opponents with two- or three-try salvos in quick time, and Scotland are intent on becoming the side that plays at the fastest pace, even getting the All Blacks to reach for their oxygen masks. Next comes ball-handling front five forwards, but for the moment the greater attacking ambition in the north is exposing defensive frailties in the south.
4) Try again
The month has provided more evidence that the review system has become intrusive to the point where spectators can no longer applaud a try with confidence, braced for an adjudication from the television van. The beauty of football’s goalline technology is that it is objective, confined to establishing whether all of the ball crossed the line. Since spreading the scope of reviews from whether the ball had been grounded for a try, inconsistency has abounded: a try from a forward pass was allowed at Twickenham one week and denied at the Principality Stadium the next, for example, while when the ball is knocked out of a carrier’s grasp, it is only sometimes ruled not to be a knock-on. Too many decisions have become subjective, something that should render the system redundant. To work, it has to be about fact; too many reviews are coming down to opinion, and not always that of the referee.
5) Counting the cost
The end-of-season international windows in June and November serve a financial rather than a rugby purpose. Even the All Blacks, with all their playing resources, felt the strain this year, more pale grey after 14 Tests in six months. All that will change from 2020 is the timing of the summer Tests from June to July after, during the drawn-out discussions about the global season, the European unions refused to modify the autumn Tests here. The importance of the income they generate counted for more than the welfare of players despite mounting evidence of the physical toll being taken in a game where the ball in play time, not least because of rule tweaks, was increasing. A number of players were left at home this month. The season should be shrinking rather than expanding, as the English clubs would like. The autumn internationals have, largely, provided poor value for money having become - in more than one way - exploitative.