Dubai: Surprises in the starting line-ups will make Saturday’s first Test between New Zealand and the British and Irish Lions closer than expected, according to OSN pundits Jeremy Guscott, Scott Gibbs and Zinzan Brooke.
Lions coach Warren Gatland dropped captain Sam Warburton for Peter O’Mahony and put Liam Williams, Eliot Daly and Anthony Watson in his back three, instead of Leigh Halfpenny and George North.
Meanwhile All Blacks coach Steve Hansen dropped Julian Savea for Rieko Ioane, and put Ioane alongside Ryan Crotty and Sonny Bill Williams in centre.
New Zealand have dominated a total 38 previous Test matches against the Lions since 1904, with 29 wins to the Lions’ six, and three draws.
The All Blacks have also won 10 of a total 11 overall series, with the Lions winning their only series back in 1971. The Lions also haven’t won a match against New Zealand since 1993 – in a series that all three OSN pundits were involved in.
Despite this the pundits are predicting a possible upset in Saturday’s first test at Auckland’s Eden Park where the All Blacks haven’t lost in 23 years.
“The unknowns in both starting line-ups will make it very interesting,” said Brooke, aged 52, a former flanker who made 58 appearances for New Zealand between 1987 and 1997. “Vulnerability is created by surprises and no-one expected those picks.
“You only have to wind the clock back to Chicago [when Ireland beat the All Blacks in November] to see how to beat New Zealand,” he said of the All Blacks only loss in their past 23 matches, when Ireland stopped New Zealand’s record 18-match winning run.
“The Lions haven’t been annihilated in any of their warm-up matches so far and glitches can happen, so the Lions will take a lot of confidence from Ireland’s victory.
“New Zealand’s form has been great since the 2015 World Cup but this is a little unusual selection.
“Do I think New Zealand can win it? Yes. Do I think the Lions can win it? Yes. I’d tell you if I thought they were going to lose.
“Realistically I’d say the series will be 2-1 to New Zealand, 3-0 is the target, but I think there are going to be quite a few surprises.
“The Lions have a chance of clinching the first Test and if they don’t I think they will come a scupper.”
Guscott, aged 51, a former centre, who made 65 appearances for England between 1989 and 1999, and played in three Lions series in 1989, 1993 and 1997, getting eight caps, agreed: “For me the All Blacks get better as the series goes on, if the Lions lose the first Test it’s pretty much impossible to win it, but you have to keep believing because the inclusion of that back three Williams, Watson and Daly is very attacking.
“The Lions have been making enough breaks they are just not finishing, but now they should have three who can read and anticipate the break and more importantly reload, reshape and attack again.
“Gatland has recognised that the team is great in other areas, but they haven’t been able to score tries, so he went with his gut instinct in identifying people who could score and the All Blacks weren’t set for that.
“He’s gone with potential and people who can improve rather than someone trying to rediscover what they once were, so it’s a positive selection.”
Is it also a risk? “It’s only a risk if you anticipate a loss. If you anticipate a win it’s not risky.
“It’s a two horse race and the bookies only have New Zealand ahead on history and statistics because that’s all they can go on. But the All Blacks have lost the occasional game and on its day this Lions side is capable of beating New Zealand. They have the ability and the personnel to beat the All Blacks.
“The blueprint to beating them has always been there. You don’t give them enough balls or opportunities and you take your chances. It’s easy to say but nigh on impossible to do. But if you deny them the ball, squeeze them in defence and take 90 per cent of your opportunities you will beat them.
“The All Blacks will create more than one opportunity and will have a 50 per cent success rate so if they create six chances they will score three. The Lions just need to match that attacking fire and they’ve got every chance to do that now.”
Former Wales centre Gibbs, 46, who made 53 appearances for Wales between 1991 and 2001, playing in three Lions series in 1993, 1997 and 2001, making five appearances, said: “I’m suitably buoyed by the selection of the Lions’ back three, we had not really seen enterprise and execution but this selection demonstrates a more positive attacking threat than initially mooted.
“Warburton hasn’t had much game time with injury, but he has had plenty of opportunity and just hasn’t shown it, the same as North, so they are both casualties of their own performance. Gatland has rewarded form and that’s always great to see.
“The Lions haven’t divulged much so far, certainly to the eye, but there’s probably a bit more intrigue about this opening Test now. I think we are set for an explosive first Test and it just depends on how that arm wrestle goes.
“We saw from what Ireland did against New Zealand in Chicago that it’s not simply about strangling the All Blacks into submission, you actually have to outscore them as well.
“Seldom have we seen sides keep New Zealand to under 20 points but that will be the target, single digits will be an enormous task. Only one side will be able to play catch-up and that will be the All Blacks, the Lions will take no comfort in being behind.
“But tag on some enterprise and execution and I can see the first test being a lot closer than the second and third. The opportunity is there to put New Zealand on the back foot.”
