Prior to Permian winning Thursday’s Dante Stakes the Derby picture was difficult to comprehend.
Now, with just two weeks remaining before the much-anticipated Epsom showpiece, it looks no different.
True, the Dante is one of richest sources for Derby winners over the past 50 years having uncovered 10 winners of the great race, including Golden Horn most recently in 2016, but Permian’s performance did not do enough to bring the order into focus.
Undoubtedly, he deserves to take his chance on the Berkshire come June 3, but it remains to be seen if he has what it takes to handle the notoriously hazardous Epsom track.
We are all aware that Epsom provides the sternest test for both horse and jockey given the uniqueness of the track, not least awkward downhill bend that catches even the best horses out.
Franny Norton rode a copybook race aboard Permian, settling his mount behind the leaders in a perfect rhythm before making his move up the seemingly endless York straight.
It was nice to see that Permian was staying on strongly and comfortably saw off the challenge thrown down by Godolphin’s Benbatle, who is most certainly headed to Epsom, and the fast closing Crystal Ocean.
How much did that race impact on the Derby jigsaw? Not much despite the solid record of past Dante winners, Erhaab, Benny the Dip, North Light, Motivator, Authorized and Golden Horn at Epsom.
The only significant outcome was that leading bookmakers responded by pushing Cracksman, Permian’s conqueror in a Epsom Derby Trial in April, ahead of him and into the coveted second-favourite’s slot behind the Dee Stakes winners, Cliffs Of Moher.
Interestingly Cracksman’s status was enhanced without the venerable John Gosden’s colt even stepping foot on a racecourse since his April outing.
Permian does not hold an entry for the Derby and will have to be supplemented at a cost of £80,000 on Derby week. Not much of a problem as his trainer Mark Johnston has received the green signal to complete the obligation by none else than His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, on behalf of his son Shaikh Hamdan Bin Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, in whose colours Permian runs.
Could this be a good omen given the fact that Golden Horn was suppled for the Derby, which he subsequently won, following his Dante romp.
The bookmakers obviously don’t believe in omens and offer attractive odds of 16/1 for Johnston’s charge, while Cliff Of Moher and Cracksman remain at the top of the markets.
Another race that has a good reputation for throwing up Derby winners is he 2,000 Guineas with the likes of Sir Percy (2nd), New Approach (2nd), Sea the Stars, Camelot and Australia (3rd) all having delivered distinguishing efforts in the Newmarket Classic at the start of the season.
However, it us unsure if Churchill, who for long dominated the ante-post exchanges for the Derby, will take his place in the race, a suspicion that has greatly affected his reputation and seen him slide to a high as 10-1 to win, should he run.
It’s a nice problem for his trainer Aidan O’Brien, who has an abundance of riches at his disposal for Epsom, including Cliffs Of Moher, Venice Beach, winner of the Chester Vase, Douglas Macarthur, Yucatan and Wings Of Eagles.
Godolphin are seeking a first Derby in their stable colours and have genuine contenders in Best Solution and Dubai Thunder.
But whoever runs in the Classic on Saturday, June 3 he will have to be extra special, and we haven’t yet seen that kind of horse in any of the many trial races.