A failure of a first year for Pep Guardiola at Manchester City would turn into an unmitigated disaster if The Citizens go on to finish outside the Premier League’s top four.

Sunday’s 2-1 FA Cup semi-final defeat to Arsenal not only confirms the Spaniard will end his first season in charge of the Sky Blues without silverware, but it’s also his first year in a decade-long coaching career that he’s failed to win a trophy.

Neither he nor City can afford to dwell on that prospect for much longer however, as they now face Manchester United at home in the league on Thursday.

Not only is it a bitter derby, but fifth-placed United who are just a point behind fourth-placed City could also leapfrog their rivals with victory.

United would then have five games left at home to Swansea, away to Arsenal, Tottenham and Southampton and at home to Palace, to hold onto fourth; while City would need to fight back away to Middlesbrough, and at home to Palace, Leicester and West Brom, before an away trip to Watford.

As it is, there’s already no excuse for a club of City’s stature to be ending the season without silverware, but if they then went on to miss out on finishing fourth, despite all the above variables, it would be completely unacceptable.

It may not cost Guardiola his job now, because City have tailored the club for his arrival and are in it for the long haul, but if they fail to finish top four thus don’t get into the Uefa Champions League next season, it will set off a devastating series of events.

Top players won’t join a club that’s not playing in Europe, and the morale of existing players will decline upon the arrival of second-rate signings. On top of that, the club won’t be making the same TV revenue from midweek appearances on the continent, limiting their ability to compete for top four and trophies again next season.

This is not the tone City had hoped for when employing a coach, who had won three consecutive league titles at both Barcelona and Bayern Munich, as well as two Champions League trophies with the Catalans. But then, has he been overhyped?

Guardiola inherited successful systems at both Barca and Bayern, two clubs that have won before him and will win long after he’s gone.

City, on the other hand, is an entirely different case-study. A club jettisoned into the limelight since their 2008 takeover, they aren’t a traditionally successful side, so have had to start from scratch.

If he really is as good a coach as they say he is — with their resources and players — he will surely be able to lead them onto better next season, starting with a top-four finish this year.