The synchronisation of the next general elections in India with the assembly polls of 2018 to set a pattern may not be the only reason why the Union government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is said to be considering bringing forward the 2019 general elections by a year.
While the need to evolve a system, where the major elections are held simultaneously, has been talked about for some time, the present conjecture relates mainly to the calculations about the prospects of the ruling party at the Centre. The belief seemingly is that it will be better for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to cash in on whatever gains it has made in the last three-and-a-half-years, rather than wait for another 20 months or so when its inadequacies on the employment front and in relieving the distress of farmers may become all the more apparent.
It will serve the party better, therefore, to advance the dates of the next general elections while the ‘Modi magic’ hasn’t quite faded, as a recent opinion poll has shown, and with the opposition continuing to be in disarray.
Although the government cannot but derive considerable satisfaction from the opposition’s discomfiture, it cannot be unaware of the fact that it still has pockets of influence as is evident from the marginal improvement in the Congress’s position in the recent Madhya Pradesh local elections and the Trinamool Congress’s sweeping victories in the West Bengal municipal polls last week.
The BJP also knows that it has to guard against the anti-incumbency factor affecting the party’s prospects in the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Gujarat next year. Even if it wins, a loss of seats compared to the previous elections can be disheartening on the eve of the general elections if it is held in 2019. It will also be demoralising for the BJP if the Congress retains power in Karnataka and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) also holds on to the government in Tripura. Having general elections earlier will enable the BJP to avoid such uncomfortable possibilities.
What the BJP will have to remember, though, is that people often vote against the ruling party because of dissatisfaction with its performance even if the opponent is weak. This had happened in Goa and Manipur, where the Congress emerged as the single largest party in state elections, before it lost that position because of the BJP’s success in weaning away a number of legislators.
However, such defections could not hide the fact that there was dissatisfaction with the BJP.
The same disenchantment has also been voiced by a fairly wide section of the people in recent weeks as can be seen from the protest letters written to the prime minister by a section of retired bureaucrats and army veterans and the processions taken out by scientists against the encouragement of obscurantist practices by the ruling dispensation.
These grievances have nothing to do with unemployment and farmers’ distress, which are undoubtedly the two most serious problems faced currently by the government. Instead, these are the grouses of the average middle-class householders who have been feeling uneasy about the growing climate of intolerance, although it probably does not affect them in a personal capacity.
Even then, the depredations of the cow vigilantes, along with the possibility of the police entering private homes to check whether anyone is eating beef, as the Maharashtra government wants to do, the competitive jingoism on TV channels, the foul language used by the BJP’s supporters against the party’s opponents in social media, the distortion of history, including the blanking out of Jawaharlal Nehru’s name from the speeches of high dignitaries, are some of the trends that can cause unease among the common people.
No one can predict the cumulative effect of these feelings over the next two years, along with the slowing down of the economy, which is a prime cause of the unemployment problem.
Although early general elections can enable the government to make hay while the sun is still shining, albeit faintly, it is only a temporary palliative. As of now, a more long-standing solution of the current ills is not visible. As a result, the BJP has to continue to depend on the faith that the average person still places in the prime minister’s ability to tide over the difficult situations through hard work.
The government is also fortunate that it hasn’t had to face the kind of corruption charges that brought down its predecessor and still hobbles many of the opposition parties. At the same time, it is obvious that the expectations of rapid economic advancement, which are behind Modi’s success, have been largely belied. No wonder, the promise of “achhey din” (good times) is not being heard any more.
The BJP’s other problem is its total dependence on Modi, which is not unlike what it was with the Congress during former prime minister Indira Gandhi’s heydays. It is a scenario that is not politically healthy for a party, as can be seen from the Congress’s present plight when it is pathetically dependent on the dynasty despite its fading charisma. The BJP, on its part, has to capitalise on Modi’s popularity as long as it brings in the votes. Hence, the need for general elections next year.
— IANS
Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst
