US Vice-President Mike Pence concludes today (Monday) and Tuesday a 10-day trip to the Asia-Pacific region and Hawaii after stop-offs in Seoul, Tokyo, Jakarta, Sydney and, now, Honolulu. The trip has underlined continued US commitment to key allies and regional partnerships, including the 40th anniversary of US-Asean relations, building up the profile of Pence as an international leader.
In Honolulu, Pence will meet with the US military’s senior leadership from the Pacific Command, and visit the USS Arizona Memorial to pay honour to the victims of the Pearl Harbor attack which helped bring the United States into the Second World War. Yet, it is present-day security tensions that have dominated the trip: specifically with North Korea — which may be preparing for a new test of its nuclear weaponry — topping the agenda.
Pence’s two-day stop-off in Seoul coincided with the North Korean regime’s failed test of a missile from an eastern port city following its celebration of the 105th anniversary of the birth of its founder with a huge military parade in Pyongyang. The latter event, which unveiled what appear to be new inter-continental ballistic missiles, has ratcheted up tensions in the peninsular at a time when North Korean Deputy UN ambassador Kim In-ryong asserted that “thermonuclear war could break out at any moment”.
During the trip, Pence confirmed that the two decades-long US policy of “strategic patience” towards Pyongyang is over, with all options now on the table. This statement builds on that of US President Donald Trump earlier this month — just prior to his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping — that if Beijing “is not going to solve North Korea, we [the United States] will”.
As the Pence trip showed, that Xi-Trump meeting appears to have resolved little on North Korea, with both doing no more than treading water. After the session, the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier has been sent to waters near North Korea. Meanwhile, Xi reportedly sent a Chinese envoy to South Korea.
No easy resolution
As Pence has found out during his trip, the fact that security tensions on the Korean peninsula have no easy resolution has also been discovered by consecutive US administrations which have grappled with responding to not just missile launches by Pyongyang, but also its nuclear tests — of which the next one could come soon. Last year, the Obama team talked tough on multilateral sanctions, but found China reluctant to take comprehensive, sweeping measures against its erstwhile ally. This dialogue culminated in November with the UN voting to tighten some sanctions in response to Pyongyang’s fifth nuclear test.
Despite its frustration with North Korea, China has so far proved reluctant to take sweeping measures against its erstwhile ally. The key reason why Beijing has differed with Washington over the scope and severity of actions against Pyongyang largely reflects the fact that it does not want to push the regime so hard that it becomes significantly destabilised.
From the vantage point of Chinese officials, this risks North Korea behaving even more unpredictably, and/ or the outside possibility of the implosion of the regime which would not be in Beijing’s interests. This is not least as it could lead to instability on the North Korea-China border, and ultimately the potential emergence of a pro-US successor nation.
Recent US rhetoric, including from Pence, has also given Beijing heightened concerns that Washington might now be thinking, much more seriously, about a pre-emptive strike on Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities. This is one reason why Foreign Minister Wang Li asserted last month that “China’s priority now is to flash the red light and apply the break to both [the US and North Korean] trains” to avoid a collision.
Beijing’s concern here is partly what it asserts is the United States fanning the flames by beginning last month deployment of the controversial Terminal High Altitude Area Defence missile system (THAAD) in South Korea. China vehemently opposes THAAD which it fears could be used for US espionage on its activities, as much as for targeting North Korean missiles.
Trump’s ambassador
It is in this context that Pence’s trip has taken place. The vice-president is assuming a significant role in the administration as an international ambassador for the president, not least in re-assuring allies about Trump’s sometimes raucous rhetoric.
In assuming a high profile, he is following a pattern whereby the last three incumbents of his job — Joe Biden, Dick Cheney, and Al Gore — all enjoyed sizeable influence in not just domestic affairs, but also foreign policy too. Indeed, Cheney, who was a predominant voice in many of George W. Bush’s big decisions, including the US-led invasion of Iraq, is widely viewed as the most powerful ever holder of the office.
Part of the reason why Pence could be such a key figure in this administration’s foreign policy is that it remains unclear how much sway US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defence Secretary James Mattis hold with Trump. Moreover, at 70, Trump was last November the oldest person ever to win the presidency, surpassing the previous record held by Ronald Reagan who was 69 in 1980.
In the next few years, Pence could assume a growing array of foreign policy responsibilities, and may even get his hands on the top job if he and the administration are perceived to have been successful. This is because the vice-presidency has become perhaps the single best transitional office to the Oval Office in recent decades, and Pence may well run for the presidency himself in the future, potentially in 2020, if Trump does not run again, or 2024 if not.
Taken overall, Pence’s trip has reinforced his role as an influential player in international affairs. Moreover, his hosts on this trip have been well aware that there is a significant chance he will run for the presidency himself in the 2020s which means his global influence could only grow.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
