Save for an unforeseen surprise, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton will become the 45th President of the United States on November 8 — notwithstanding America’s unblemished misogyny that, frankly stated, is embarrassing. She will defeat Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who dreams of a dictatorship where a citizen can no longer challenge an administrative order under the rule of law.
Although eminently qualified for the position — the 68-years old was the first lady of Arkansas, first lady of the US, US senator from New York and the 67th secretary of state — Clinton is confronting the most unqualified presidential candidate since 1776, which must surely include William Harrison (March 4, 1841 to April 4, 1841), who served for 30 days because he refused to wear a coat, stood under the rain, failed to change his clothes for hours and died of pneumonia. So much for Harrison’s judgement that, truth be told, was long before the paid-assistant concept mushroomed.
Be that as it may, what few recall is that Clinton was a Goldwater Republican and campaigned for the Arizona Senator in the 1964 presidential candidate. She was raised in a politically conservative family that valued core principles of liberty and economic prosperity for all, which was the case with the challenger.
Based on what we know, Trump espoused few values when he attended the New York Military Academy, where he intimidated many. He graduated in 1968 from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania with a BS in economics, became a real estate developer and launched relatively successful businesses that ranged the gamut from selling steaks to water — even university degrees from a fictitious institution — topped by shale projects that, more often than not, took advantage of those less fortunate. Notwithstanding his prowess, the London-based Economist concluded that his “performance [from 1985 to 2016] has been mediocre, compared with the stock market and property in New York”.
There are a lot of mysteries about Trump’s businesses, but what surfaced during the presidential campaign revealed that his 1995 tax records showed he had reported a loss of $916 million (Dh3.36 billion), which could have allowed him to legally avoid paying income taxes for up to 18 years. Whether he now has $10 billion. as he likes to boast, or about $3 billion to $3.7 billion as Bloomberg and Forbes estimate, is far less important than what he proposes to do if he sets foot inside the Oval Office.
Remarkably, Trump engaged in incendiary interviews and debates for nearly two years, insulting his way through a long process that culminated with the latest revelations that highlighted lewd and sexist comments. Conservative Americans who brag about family values are appalled by what their nominee uttered but, disingenuously, continue to support the flawed candidate because they abhor Clinton. His most recent braggadocio to send Clinton to jail was a clever way to change the subject, but that will not do. In fact, leading party stalwarts, including House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator John McCain, literally abandoned him. Ryan conceded that the Republican Party could not possibly win the 2016 presidential elections and was now concentrating on salvaging what can be rescued of the House of Representatives.
Truth be told, no one before Trump had jeopardised Republicans in the same way as the reality-television host tossed the party created by Abraham Lincoln into the gutter. To think that Trump aspires to fill Lincoln’s shoes is mind-boggling but, sadly, few Americans recall the sacrifices made by earlier generations to create a union that was certainly not perfect but that ensured core freedoms. Trump now proposes to literally destroy those liberties as he boasts of creating a first-rate dictatorship by guaranteeing his opponent will be jailed, for alleged crimes that only exist in his vivid imagination.
Under the circumstances, senior Republicans will need to worry about the consequences of such bravado, and it remains to be determined whether they will succeed to retain their current majority in Congress, which is not guaranteed.
It is worth remembering that on November 8, voters will not only choose a new president, but also 34 senators — of whom 24 are Republicans this time around — and all 435 representatives in the House. The current US Senate has 54 Republicans and 45 Democrats (including one independent), who only need to gain four or five seats to take control. Mark Kirk in Illinois tops the list as the most vulnerable incumbent, though Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Marco Rubio in Florida and Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania (all Republicans) are in jeopardy. In the House of Representatives, 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats (a difference of 59 seats) will enter various contests and while naturally built-in geographical advantages mean that incumbents are likely to prevail, three specific things are likely to occur.
First, democrats will rebound from their 2014 lows, especially in Iowa, Nevada and Texas. Second, courts have rejected Republican-drawn congressional maps in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia on grounds of partisan and racial gerrymandering, which means that Democrats will probably pick up one seat each in Florida and Virginia. And third, a dozen more open contests are likely because of retirements, which will probably see at least 10 seats switch to Democrats.
Of course, the egotistical Trump does not have a clue about most Congressional races, as he jets himself from insult to vulgarity, which is why Ryan withdrew his support. There are those who still think that Trump stands a chance, though in reality, the real estate mogul is much closer to oblivion. Republicans who care about their party and perhaps America, will now pray that the next few weeks will pass without the appearance of new lascivious videos, if for no other reasons than to end the circus without bringing down the tent over their heads.
— Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is the author of the just-published From Alliance to Union: Challenges Facing Gulf Cooperation Council States in the Twenty-First Century (Sussex: 2016)
