All eyes are on Moscow as Arab leaders and key players in the Syrian crisis converge on the Russian capital amid hopes that the stage is being prepared for a fresh bid to find a political solution in the war-torn country. Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin received King Abdullah of Jordan, President Abdul Fattah Al Sissi of Egypt and His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, an event that underlined Arab interest in Russia’s growing regional influence especially in resolving the Syrian conflict.

In the past months, Moscow witnessed intensive diplomatic activities including an important visit by Mohammad Bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince and Saudi Minister of Defence, during which a number of strategic agreements were signed.

In addition a delegation representing the Syrian National Coalition visited the Russian capital earlier this month indicating that Moscow was ready to engage most parties in the Syrian conflict.

There are reports that representatives of armed opposition groups in Syria, excluding Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and Al Nusra Front, have been invited to Moscow for consultations as well.

King Abdullah has called on the Russian president to play a vital role in finding a political solution to the Syrian crisis. President Al Sissi agreed with his Russian counterpart that a future solution in Syria must be based on the principles of Geneva I. There are signs that Washington, which backs a political solution, supports Russia’s involvement and that the two countries believe that forming a transitional government in Damascus is a necessary first step.

They also agree on the need to preserve Syria’s national army and state infrastructure in order to avoid a repetition of the Iraqi debacle that followed the US invasion in 2003. The stumbling block remains the future of President Bashar Al Assad.

But recent declarations by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubair, earlier in Moscow and recently in London, that Al Assad has no role in the future of Syria underlined how difficult it will be to resolve this challenge. Riyadh and Ankara are the regime’s most adamant opponents.

Both are backing opposition groups on the ground. But in recent weeks Turkey has toned down its rhetoric and is now talking about the need for a democratic political process in Syria without mentioning the fate of Al Assad.

Russian officials insist that Moscow’s position on Syria has not changed. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said recently that his country still believes that the future of Al Assad must be decided by the Syrian people. But analysts agree that with Russia taking the lead in investigating possible solutions in Syria, it must be contemplating a number of scenarios and compromises. For Putin the priority today is to form a regional and international alliance, which includes the Syrian regime, to fight radical groups in the Middle East.

King Abdullah has warned a number of times of the impending threat of Daesh and militant extremist groups. Egypt’s Al Sissi is fighting a war against radical groups in Sinai and is worried about the rise of Daesh in neighbouring Libya.

Both countries will play a key role in the proposed Arab joint force that was approved by the Arab League recently.

Four-point peace plan

On his part Al Assad has dismissed any political solution and praised the unyielding support of both Iran and Russia. But his recalcitrance might not be appreciated by Moscow and Tehran. The latter has unveiled a four-point peace plan on Syria which is in harmony with the Geneva I declaration.

Russia and Iran now realise that after four bloody years the Damascus regime is unable to end the conflict militarily. In fact de facto partition of Syria is the reality today with various groups maintaining control of pockets of influence in the north, south and east of the country. Al Assad’s grip on strategic parts of the country is loosening as is the case in Idlib and Daraa. A military stalemate is the most likely scenario.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have backed a new UN Security Council plan on Syria, which will provide the basis for a possible resumption of a political process that may culminate in a new Geneva or Moscow meeting before the end of the year. The need for a political solution has become a priority for most parties affiliated with the Syrian crisis. The fight against Daesh has brought those parties closer.

While Russia says that there are no new initiatives on Syria for now, there are strong indications that Putin understands the urgency associated with creating momentum on the political front. Al Assad will try to foil any attempt to implement the Geneva I principles, but even his close allies now know that this is no longer an option.

Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.