United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May is on borrowed time. There’s no other conclusion any reasonable observer can draw from the Conservative party cat fights that are now well and truly in the open. And it’s only a matter of time before she is toppled. By the first week in May, it’ll be the end of May — if not sooner. And here are 15 reasons why:
n 1. Her strategic judgement is flawed
As it stands now — and ever since she alone decided to head to the polls in the snap general election on June 8, last year, she has proven that. May opted to call the election by looking at opinion polls and, seeing Labour under its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, in disarray, felt that she could lead the Conservatives to a resounding victory, one that would allow her to negotiate with Brussels on the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) from a position of strength. Instead, she turned David Cameron’s majority government into a minority, with no one to blame other than herself.
n 2. Her political radar is broken
If you’re going to call a snap general election, and if your leadership is going to be the winning element, then you’d better have strong leadership to offer. On the campaign trail, she did U-turns on party policies on seniors paying for their long-term care with their homes. She is too aloof to connect with voters. Although a senior citizen, Corbyn connected with young voters, revitalised his party and saw it surge by offering popular policies on rail nationalisation, student loans, housing and health. She avoided most interactions with voters, and was found wanting when she did.
n 3. She leads a divided Cabinet
May put together a Cabinet of strong personalities. She is not unique in doing so, but when those characters are openly at war with one another, it’s only a matter of time before she becomes collateral damage.
n 4. She has no clear notion of Brexit
May’s Cabinet includes Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Brexit Secretary David Davis and Trade Secretary Liam Fox, who want a hard break from Europe. It also includes Chancellor Phillip Hammond, who is a Remainer at heart, and is best positioned to fully understand the real costs of leaving the EU — in either a hard or soft manner.
n 5. Europe knows she is vulnerable
After six months of negotiations, Brussels has determined that nature of every round and the outcome have all been in its favour. May has conceded ground on the Irish border, has failed to be clear when it comes to future immigration levels, and has agreed to pay more some €45 billion (Dh205.3 billion) to Brussels for the UK to leave. In truth, the EU negotiations would much rather May hang on so they can get the possible deal for the EU27.
n 6. She’s vulnerable
Brexiteers such as Johnson, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, Fox and Davis know Europe knows she’s vulnerable. Never a better time to make a power grab than when the party leader is weak. Why else would a Latin-speaking snob like Jacob Rees Mogg be raising his profile?
n 7. Did I say she was vulnerable?
Remainers inside her Cabinet know, Europe knows, she’s vulnerable. Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson could be just the modern and enlightened person to revive middle-of-the-road fortunes.
n 8. May is hiding the cost of Brexit
For months, her government has obfuscated the real cost of leaving the EU on the British economy. A series of analysis papers covering nearly 60 sectors of the economy existed, then didn’t, then were synopsised, and were wallpapered over. Now, one analysis from the Department for Exiting the EU has come to light, saying that in the event of a hard-case Brexit, the UK economy will shrink by 8 per cent, and by 2 per cent in the best case and unlikely scenario of a 15-year transition phase.
n 9. It’s about the economy, stupid
For most Britons, her Conservative government represents austerity and the freezing of wages, or a reduction in their actual cost of living. Many young Britons are priced out of the home ownership, lack affordable housing, or are forced to live in cities and towns outside London’s commuter belt. And that means relying on train services that are substandard, subject to delays and strikes, and where ticket price rises outpace inflation.
n 10. The health care system is broken
Ask any Briton about the National Health Service (NHS), and they will bemoan the quality of service, underfunded hospitals, overworked staff, and delays for operations and treatment. Ambulance waiting times are longer. When the Foreign Secretary complains very publicly about the quality of the NHS, he isn’t slapped down in Cabinet.
n 11. May can’t trust her backbench
The bill to leave the EU is currently winding its way through Westminster. It has already been the cause of one embarrassing Commons defeat for the PM, and has necessitated her party whips strong-arming Members of parliament into line. There is a long tradition in parliament of breaking with party whips, and the more MPs are coerced, the more they chaff at the bit. And Tory party rules mean a leadership confidence vote can be called by one-fifth of MPS. By November, there were already 40 prepared to do so, eight short of the required under party rules.
n 12. The party’s membership is plummeting
The backbone of the Conservative party for decades has been the numbers of middle and upper-class Tories who were prepared to attend meetings, stuff envelopes and campaign. Official party figures haven’t been released in four years, and back in 2013, when Cameron led it, there were once 149,000 paid-up members. Now it’s believed to be under 100,000 — and possibly as low as 70,000. Compare that to Labour’s 552,000 members who are active and comfortable on social media, and the disparity between the two main parties is huge. Even the Liberal Democrats claim 103,000 members, while the Scottish Nationalist Party has 118,000.
n 13. The local elections are looming
If the Conservatives are to avoid an electoral massacre come local government elections on May 3, the party needs something drastic to happen. And nothing would shake up the ranks than seeing the leader jettisoned and a new figurehead campaigning to make the Conservatives’ view of Britain great once again.
n 14. The luck factor is against her
Any political leader needs more than an ounce of luck to succeed. When she took to the stage at the party’s annual conference in September, she hacked her way through her speech, an intruder offered her a notice of termination of employment, and the stage malfunctioned. She can’t catch a break.
n 15. There’s nothing to lose
Since becoming the party leader and leading them to a minority from a winning position, May has done little or nothing to improve party fortunes. So, what’s there to lose now anyway? A few years in opposition, to revive and rejuvenate, and allow this whole Brexit mess to be settled by someone else, looks not unappealing.
