I have penned in the last three years numerous columns and delivered many lectures touching on the ongoing schism and rivalry between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iran. Lately, the Saudi-led GCC–Iran animosity, along with the Sunni-Shiite rivalry has taken a turn for the worse.

What exacerbates the GCC states’ security dilemma, is the Obama administration’s obsession with the Iran nuclear deal, and overlooking Iran shenanigans and meddling in its affairs and other Arab states affairs, in favour of reaching the nuclear deal at any cost.

From a GCC perspective, the US’ hands-off approach is undermining both GCC security and the strong and reliable GCC-US partnership.

Over the last two years there have been ominous developments which have heated up the Cold War atmosphere between the two sides. The heated rivalry took a turn for the worse in 2015 and in the first week of the New Year, with Iran upping the ante and blatantly interfering in the affairs of many Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, after the execution one of its citizens, the Shiite cleric Nimr Al Nimr.

Al Nimr had undermined Saudi security by trying to import the wilyat Al Faqihi system to Saudi Arabia and targeted Saudi Security personnel in the eastern province of the country. Al Nimr’s execution sparked an over-reaction from Iran. Organised mobs ransacked the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and its Consulate in Mashhad, in violation of the Vienna Convention.

Things spiralled and Saudi Arabia retaliated strongly by severing its diplomatic, trade and commercial ties, as well as air flights to Iran. This was followed by the GCC, the Arab League states and the Islamic Cooperation Organisation condemning Iran’s attack on the Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran. In a show of solidarity with Saudi Arabia, half the Arab League states (out of 22 countries) either severed their diplomatic ties with Iran or downgraded their diplomatic ties, with some recalling their ambassadors.

Many GCC and Arab states kicked out the Iranian ambassadors and the Iranian diplomatic personnel. The tit-for-tat exchanges were exhibited between the Iranian and the Saudi foreign ministers on the opinion pages of the New York Times in rebuking and stinging columns attacking the policies of each other’s countries, exacerbating tensions and destroying confidence-building measures, thus deepening the rivalry and the Cold War atmosphere.

It is ironic today, that while Iran’s relationship with the West is at all-time high, buoyed by President Hassan Rouhani’s successful first European visit and signing multi-billion dollar deals in Paris and Rome and the country’s opening up to the West — especially with the US after sanctions were lifted, as well as the prisoners swap — Iran’s relations with its GCC neighbours and the wider Arab world are at an all-time low — save the capitals that Iran boasts of controlling through its proteges and proxies (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sana’a).

Just before this unprecedented turn of events, the Kuwait Criminal Court indicted the largest terrorist cell — 25 Kuwaitis and one Iranian — trained and armed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah to undermine the Kuwaiti political system. This alarming plot brought to the fore again Iran’s meddling in the affairs of Kuwait and other GCC states.

From the beginning, the GCC states feared the Iran-nuclear deal would not encourage Iran to act more maturely and rationally with its GCC neighbours, as the Obama administration had hoped.

It seems the nuclear deal, as feared, has emboldened Iran to act more recklessly and to double-down to see its project — to be the regional hegemon — come to fruition. This is evident in Iraq, by supporting the sectarian government and militias and condoning their sectarian cleansing in Diyala Province, (bordering Iran), especially their recent atrocities and cleansing of the Sunni population in Miqdadiyah; in Syria, by doubling down and increasing the numbers of the Revolutionary Guards and announcing the names and ranks of those who fall; in Lebanon, by continuing to instruct their proxy Hezbollah to block the election of Lebanese president for two years; and in Yemen, by continuing to support Al Houthi rebels who have toppled the elected government of Abd Rabo Mansour Hadi and aligning themselves with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Although Iran was successfully able to shore up its strength by striking the nuclear deal with the group of P5+1, putting its nuclear programme on hold, it gets in return a free-hand arrangement as the policeman of the region, an ally in the fight against terrorism and extremism, mainly Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), legitimacy and more cash.

US Secretary of State, John Kerry, fears that some of Iran’s money from unfrozen assets will go to groups the US label as terrorist organisations.

Nevertheless, 2015 was a bad year for Iran from a regional perspective.

Iran found itself on the defensive in 2015. The Saudis with their GCC partners surprised Iran by launching on March 26, 2015, Operation Decisive Storm and Restore Hope to restore the legitimate government in Yemen.

But strategically, to contain, deter and deal a blow to Iran’s hegemonic project in the Middle East. This was followed by checking Iran and its allies in Syria, intensifying the Saudi-led GCC efforts to arm the Syrian opposition with advanced weapons, mainly the wire-guided-anti-armoured (TOW) missiles, which have been effective in dealing major blows to the advanced Syrian armoured vehicles.

What irks the GCC states in this showdown with Iran is US reticence and lack of exercising a leadership role. The continuation of the US’ hands-off policy after the implementation of the nuclear deal, the lifting the sanctions and the release of frozen assets, is worrying the GCC states.

The GCC states fear the downgrading of the strategic relations, or worse, US abandonment. And they are equally worried about Iran’s resurgence, its increased assertiveness in the post-nuclear-deal era, and the country’s sectarian and divisive policy in the region. This, no doubt, pushes the toxic GCC-Iran relationship towards a tipping point, at a costly price for all sides.

 

Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is a professor of Political Science and the former chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. You can follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/@docshayji