In a stunning upset, Democrat Conor Lamb won a close special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, beating Republican candidate Rick Saccone in a deeply conservative district. We now know that this district — which United States President Donald Trump won by 20 points — swung in a huge way towards Democrats, making this a major rebuke of Trump and Republicans, deep in the heart of Trump country. In a way Conor Lamb won a district Democrats weren’t supposed to be competitive in. Three key takeaways:
n The House map probably just got broader. Given Lamb’s success in a district of this type, others are now reassessing whether there are more districts out there that are heavy on working class white voters and went big for Trump that Democrats should contest. Republicans are now worried that Lamb’s strong showing means that other deep red districts may now be in play. One big question is whether Democrats, who are currently contesting a lot of diverse, well educated, suburban, professional-heavy districts, will expand their reach into more blue collar rural and small town districts. More retirements — or more Democrats declaring candidacies — in places like the one in which Lamb prevailed will be a key tell.
n The Trump/GOP agenda may be a big albatross for the GOP. Republicans had banked heavily on selling their tax cuts to voters as proof that they’re getting things done for working and middle class people. But in the final days, Republicans dialled down their messaging about the tax cuts, because it wasn’t working. Lamb appears to have kept GOP foe Rick Saccone’s margins down in the deep red counties while also doing very well in Pittsburgh.
Dem strategist Simon Rosenberg suggests the results show not just that the GOP tax plan is failing, but also that the whole Trump/GOP agenda is actually an albatross for Republicans.
n Democrats can win back blue collar whites. In his speech to supporters, Lamb stressed the importance of organised labour to the future of the Democratic Party, spoke up for the value of unions and work, and emphasised the importance of maintaining bedrock programs like Medicare and Social Security. He had also campaigned against the GOP tax cuts as a giveaway to the rich — and, importantly, blasted the tax cuts for creating deficits that would require deep cuts to entitlements, harming the middle class.
Yes, these crucial results can be explained by Lamb’s qualities as a candidate — he is a former prosecutor and ex-Marine whose cultural stances and temperament made him a good fit for the district. But if anything, this underscores the point: If Democrats can get good candidates who stress the importance of labour (which worked hard for Lamb’s win) and popular social insurance programs, they can win back some of the very blue collar voters who were lured away by Trump’s economic populism — and who, apparently, are now not swayed by Trump’s ongoing racial and cultural appeals, if the failure of Trump’s burst of racism and authoritarianism at his last-minute rally is any indication.
There is a robust argument underway among Democrats over whether they should prioritise outreach to the suburban and educated white voters, mostly women, who are deeply distressed and energised by Trump, or redouble their focus on the blue collar whites that Trump lured away. But the recent results perhaps suggest that the GOP agenda is unpopular among both those demographics (as some Dem pollsters have noted), meaning that this may be a false choice. If that holds, it will ensure a broad map with many key districts seriously in play — and a better shot for Democrats at capturing the United States House of Representatives.
— Washington Post
Greg Sargent writes The Plum Line blog.
