Arab heads-of-state have held five regularly scheduled summits since 2011 — along with an emergency session in January 2016 — before this week’s gathering in Jordan. They confronted various security and political challenges created by the epochal Arab Uprisings, now dominated by three ongoing wars in Iraq, Syria nd Yemen. Baghdad, Damascus and Sana’a are now caught in long-term crises that will linger for a while because regional and international actors perceive all three as ideal arenas to engage in proxy wars. Naturally, and while peace will eventually return, it is fair to ask whether they, along with the rest of all League of Arab States (LAS) members, will survive intact. As a corollary, it is also important to assess their impact on the Middle East at large.
No one should or can minimise the consequences of the three ongoing wars, and it is entirely legitimate for Arab rulers and presidents to address them in full, although — and this must be stated as clearly as possible — the record is less than stellar. For it is now clear that heads-of-state who will speak in Jordan will continue to disagree on how to best impose ceasefires, bring about political settlements or even take the necessary steps to address the root causes of extremism in their midst, because regional and global actors prevent them from taking any initiative towards such ends.
Be that as it may. Beyond these roadblocks, it behoves officials to confront equally important threats — yes, far more critical for the survival of the Arab World — that must include looming economic and environmental crises, even as new geopolitical transitions are under way. In fact, the most troubling development of the past six or seven decades has been the gradual weakening of the imposed state system, as rulers and elected officials alike displayed genuine inabilities to cope with economic challenges. It is this vacuum that extremist elements pretend to fill and while every state is legitimately entitled to fight against extremists, failure to deal with embedded socio-economic concerns will guarantee more extremism.
To be sure, outsiders will divide and rule as they redraw the map of the region to their liking, though this does not excuse Arab leaders from their immense responsibilities to rise to the occasion. Simply stated, resources are limited, and it is unacceptable that any of it is wasted. Few realise that while global gross domestic product (GDP) stands at $78 billion (2016 data), the 22 LAS members post a combined GDP of $2.9 trillion, or roughly 3.7 per cent of all the goods and services produced across the board. Of course, these figures include Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) oil production, which means that excluding oil and gas would significantly reduce overall LAS states’ GDPs.
Given this reality, it is imperative that Arab leaders focus on the creation of wealth ahead of any other priority, lest the most innovative minds simply emigrate out of the region in the ongoing brain-drain that literally parched the socio-economic scenes in every Arab country since 1945.
Equally important are worsening environmental conditions, with drought now a common phenomenon, topped by serious water shortages in every country. Even Lebanon, miraculously endowed with 11 major rivers, water shortages are routine because of neglected infrastructure at the hands of incompetent and/or corrupt officials who market the resource to line their pockets. Few should doubt that water scarcities will intensify in the coming years and decades, and even fewer should be surprised by rising temperatures across the region, which will make living conditions unbearable. Lest we forget, and long before Syrians launched their uprising against the Baath regime, Damascus cavalierly neglected the gradual loss of arable land, as farmers tackled severe drought seasons. Can anyone doubt that those conditions accelerated the calls for reform?
Egypt, Jordan, Iraq and Yemen encountered similar situations, whose grave consequences can no longer be dismissed. Indeed, water scarcity will add pressure on food imports (estimated at $24-26 billion in 2016 for all 22 LAS member-states), as the loss of arable land limits the production of essential food items. Reliance on outside supplies will thus become inevitable with unknown costs, including blackmail and, perhaps, starvation.
None of these real hardships will be discussed at the Jordan LAS Summit as wary leaders focus on security matters. Yet, the battles to defeat insurgencies, stop the spread of extremisms and end bloody wars that are adding to the overall misery of millions, must not neglect the long-term breakdown of Arab economies. The time has come to reorient priorities. For all the security in the world will not ensure prosperity if ordinary Arabs are not encouraged to create wealth, add value to their societies and otherwise protect their environment.
Dr Joseph A. Kechichian is the author of the just published The Attempt to Uproot Sunni Arab Influence: A Geo-Strategic Analysis of the Western, Israeli and Iranian Quest for Domination (Sussex: 2017).
