Just as Ukrainian forces are starting to show some success in beating back the Russian-backed separatists terrorising parts of east Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown that he does not intend to allow calm to return to the country.
Last week his Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced Russian sanctions on all imports of meat, fish, milk and milk products and fruit and vegetables from the US, the European Union, Australia, Canada and Norway for one year.
The Russian move will hurt the farmers and food exports of the targeted states, but it may hurt the Russians more as their chaotic farming and food industries cannot produce enough food for their population of 143 million. The Russian sanctions are in retaliation for the new European and American sanctions agreed the previous week, and they show how stubborn Putin can be over the next few months. Putin has no intention of allowing any genuine independence, and he is basking in the glory of sky high domestic approval ratings that he won by his invasion of Crimea.
The US and the EU disastrously decided not to make too much fuss about Putin’s annexation of Crimea in March, despite the blatant illegality of a pure territory grab more reminiscent of the 18th or 19th centuries, but even they were unable to sit back and watch Russia foment tensions between Russian speaking and Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians. So the Europeans have protested vigorously over Russian actions in east Ukraine and have backed the new government of President Petro Poroshenko who won office in June this year. But Putin is still determined to rebuild the former USSR’s sphere of influence and will not allow any real independence to any country in the region he considers to be Russia’s playground.
Even if the Ukrainians succeed in re-establishing control over their own territory, Poroshenko will then have the challenge of getting Russia to stop encouraging further violence. This political process will need the backing of the Europeans who will need to both be tough on Russia’s disregard for international law and open to rebuilding relations with a chastened Kremlin.
