Al Ain: Tropical Cyclone 02A (Nanauk) on Thursday changed its predicted course slightly towards the north, baffling forecasters about its track and intensity.
The cyclone, initially expected to make landfall in Oman between Ras Al Hadd and Ras Madrakah, has appeared to be tilted towards the Al Ashkharah, north of Masirah Island, and even further north towards the Ras Al Jinz in the north-east of the country, according to the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC).
Forecasters said that Nanauk has the ability to fight off high wind shear but it will weaken upon getting close to Oman. At that point, the dry and hot air from the Arabian Peninsula would get sucked into the storm’s circulation.
“As a result, the track and intensity forecasts are divergent and it is difficult to predict the [path and intensity of the] storm,” said Adil Hassan, a meteorologist. He said the European weather model shows the storm would weaken and dissipates by Wednesday, while the other models show it as remaining strong.
The slight tilt in the course has sent waves towards the Pakistani coast that submerged various low-laying areas in Karachi on Thursday. Seas off Oman are also stormy and people have been advised to stay away from coastal areas. The storm had led authorities in Oman to initiate emergency measures and people have been moving away from the predicted course.
According to the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) the Tropical Cyclone is still 700km away from the Oman’s Masirah Island in the Arabian Sea, with no immediate threat to Oman or the UAE. There are forecasts of the cyclone getting downgraded to a deep depression upon making landfall in Oman.
This depression, said the forecasters, will cause heavy rain along with winds of 50 to 80km/h. Its surface wind is 45-55km.
Oman’s Directorate General of Air Navigation and Meteorology (DGMAN) expects heavy rain in Muscat on Saturday and Sunday. The NCMS said on Thursday that the weather models and charts do not show any direct effect to the UAE, at least for the next three days.
Hassan said a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea occurs when the sea surface temperature rises above 26°C and monsoon winds withdraw from over the Arabian Sea. This normally occurs in the first week of June as in the past two strong typhoons hit Oman -- cyclone Gonu in June, 2007 and Phet in June, 2010.
According to the NCMS’s three day forecast, the UAE weather will be hazy and partly cloudy at times. Scattered clouds could appear in the eastern mountain areas by afternoon. Temperatures are likely to fall slightly and wind will be light to moderately rough. The sea will be rough in the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.
