Beirut Amid reports that Lebanon’s crisis over the vacant presidency will spillover into the scheduled November 2014 parliamentary elections, and because of retrenched positions by polarized coalitions [March 8 vs. March 14], leading politicians increased the tempo of their search for consensus, ostensibly to reach an agreement on how to better manage the affairs of state.
The latest twist has Walid Junblatt, the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader who relishes his kingmaker role, mediate between the Future Movement led by Sa’ad Hariri, and the Amal Movement under the control of Speaker Nabih Berri. According to the pro-Hezbollah daily, Al Safir, Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil—a Berri confident—met with Nader Hariri—the director of the Future Movement—along with Health Minister Wael Abou Faour, a Jumblatt acolyte.
“We can’t resolve our problems and hold the presidential elections without dialogue,” clarified the head of the PSP, adding: “Dialogue is necessary more than before. Particularly after the attack of the Islamic State (of Iraq and the Levant) and the regional developments.”
Inasmuch as Berri agreed that a form of “political dialogue” between Amal and Future was deemed useful to untangle the current ideological deadlock that separated competing forces, and because of fears that parliamentary polls would not be held on time since members disagreed on the validity of the current electoral law, one wondered whether the latest permutations were not yet another PSP maneuver to force Future to permanently end its ongoing discussions with General Michel Aoun.
Though many anticipated positive results of the on-again and off-again Aoun-Hariri talks it was increasingly clear that Junblatt would not allow a Aoun selection. Ironically, while the PSP leader offered his own consensus contender, Aley deputy Henri Helou, his latest alleged mediation efforts between Amal and Future may well turn out to be the straw that will break the March 8 back since an Amal-Future accord, even if temporary in substance, would further weaken March 8. Remarkably, there were no reactions from dejected Aounists, most of whom were pessimistic given the PSP’s essential swing votes in parliament when the president is elected.
If Berri and Hariri allow their dialogue to mature, the Speaker’s evolving positions might permanently alter March 8, with Hezbollah losing one of its key allies, and a Shiite leader to boot. Time will tell whether Aoun’s fantasy candidacy will gain strength, although Junblatt’s latest maneuvers confirmed that a primary political component in the country held an intrinsic abhorrence towards it, and that the PSP was willing to explore even more fanciful permutations to deny him a putative victory.
