Beirut: Syrian rebels are sending more than a dozen representatives next week to the capital of Kazakhstan for talks with government representatives, the first such negotiations between the two sides in a year.
But the loss of Aleppo, the election of Donald Trump and the pivot of Turkey toward Russia has left the opposition with very little room to maneuver.
Without much foreign support and with Syria’s wider rebellion in crisis, the opposition will be negotiating for scraps, having been forced to take part in a Russia-led initiative that won’t challenge President Bashar Al Assad’s hold on power.
“They have no choice. With Trump’s win, any lingering hope to push the West into increasing its rebel support is lost,” said Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
Monday’s scheduled meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, highlights the dramatic changes in the year since the last talks broke down in Geneva.
Russia’s massive military intervention has unequivocally given Al Assad the upper hand, leaving his forces in control of Syria’s major cities and key population centers.
In the most significant setback for the rebellion since the conflict in Syria began in March 2011, pro-government forces recaptured the northern city of Aleppo in December, ending the opposition’s four-year hold on parts of Syria’s largest and most important city. For the rebels, it was an emotional departure from a place that once represented the dream of a Syria free of Al Assad.
It will be difficult for them to recover from such a defeat.
Turkish President Recep Tayyep Erdogan is embroiled in troubles at home and has moved closer to Russia recently, prioritising the fight against Kurds and Daesh over support for the Syrian rebels he has propped up for years. Instead, Ankara is leading Syrian opposition fighters in its own offensive against Daesh and Kurdish rebels in northern Syria.
On Friday, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek said his country has to be “realistic” and can no longer insist on any settlement for Syria’s long-running war without Al Assad.
“The Russians have dealt us a military defeat in Aleppo,” said Yasser Al Yousuf, a member of the political bureau of the Noor Al Deen armed group, a major rebel group in northern Syria.
“Now they are trying to deal us another defeat, politically,” he said, referring to the conference in the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan.
The humiliating loss forced the rebel factions on Dec. 29 to sign a ceasefire deal in which they agreed to the talks with representatives of Al Assad’s government.
The Russians cast the talks as the first opportunity to bring opposition military leaders to the table. Officials have said the session initially would focus on strengthening the truce in Syria, which Russia brokered with Turkey and Iran, and would help pave way for prospective talks in Geneva.
The negotiations will undoubtedly set the tone and agenda for future talks.
“Vladimir Putin’s rush to establish a new political framework through organising Syria peace talks in the Kazakh capital are primarily designed to cement the Kremlin’s position as the architect of a political solution,” said Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa director at Eurasia Group.
He said Putin’s effort is set to eliminate any negotiating structure that would require Al Assad’s removal.
Week-long negotiations in Turkey ahead of the talks reflect deep disagreement among the rebels on the goals and purpose of attending. With few friends left, the armed opposition also has no significant lifeline beside Ankara, which also had sent its troops to Syria to lead an offensive against Daesh militants and Kurdish fighters on its borders. Saudi Arabia, an early supporter of the uprising, has been embroiled in its own war in Yemen, drying up coffers amid lower oil prices. Qatar, another ally of the rebels, would still have to coordinate with Turkey to reach them.
Jamil Al Saleh, commander of the US-backed Alezzah Army, praised Turkey for hosting nearly 3 million Syrian refugees and keeping the only remaining route for civilians and fighters to the outside world. “They are the biggest ally,” he said.
His group is sending two representatives to Astana. But Al Saleh said the delegates would pull out if there is no serious effort to form a transitional government and end Al Assad’s rule.
Part of the conversation now is how and when Al Assad leaves, but there seems to be tacit acceptance - or resignation - that the 51-year-old leader will stay for the time being.
An Arab diplomat said Turkey has pressed the opposition to attend the Astana meeting because it has a long-term interest in keeping a stake in Syria. The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to talk publicly.
Russia may be taking advantage of a weakened Erdogan and the transition in the US to push the Syrian political process forward and target terrorist groups in Syria.
Al Assad said the talks will focus on the cease-fire and humanitarian assistance, and are unlikely to delve into political issues.
