Patna: Elections in Bihar have always drawn a lot of interest, but this election is special.
Never in the past has a Prime Minister been so involved in a state elections. In fact, the soon-to-start Bihar assembly election has virtually turned out to be an “invisible” contest between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and incumbent chief minister Nitish Kumar, now seeking his third term in office with support from his one-time arch-rival-turned-friend Lalu Prasad, president of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). This underlines the importance of the election scene in the state where stakes are equally high for both sides as the outcome of the elections would impact national politics.
The five-phased Bihar assembly elections start from October 12.
Both Modi and Kumar desperately need a win to keep them going. While Modi requires a victory to prove what happened in recent Delhi elections was just an “aberration” and that his popularity wave was not on the wane, for Kumar, it means a sort of “political survival” and a chance to blot out the ignominy of his humiliating defeat in last summer’s Lok Sabha elections where his party, the Janata Dal United (JD-U), was decimated. A successive defeat will certainly leave them nowhere and hence both sides have pumped in all efforts to win the battle at all costs.
Modi’s prestige is much at stake considering the way he has focused his entire attention on winning Bihar and associated himself with the poll campaign. A victory in Bihar will come as a much-needed morale booster for him ahead of the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal due in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
However, a defeat will be considered his own since the BJP has shied away from declaring its Chief Ministerial candidate for Bihar and is rather contesting the elections on PM’s face. A second successive defeat is bound to deliver a severe blow to his personal career as his government too will be under threat. Modi has already come in the firing line of the opposition for failing to contain soaring inflation, fulfil his pre-poll promise of bringing back black money stashed in foreign banks and bringing “aachhe din” (good days) to the people of the country.
Keeping in view these challenges, Modi has gone all out to capture Bihar, now ruled by his arch-rival, Kumar. His seriousness on Bihar is underlined from the fact that not only has he taken the whole poll campaign in his own hands but also deployed an array of federal ministers, top party leaders and even the BJP national chief Amit Shah in the state. He himself has addressed several election rallies in the state and is scheduled to hold many more in the next few days to charge up the voters. The BJP national chief has been camping here for the past one week and will stay put here for another one fortnight, monitoring the party’s strategies. In addition, the PM has also announced a special development package of Rs1.25 trillion (Dh71 billion) for Bihar to woo the electorates.
Modi has a personal score to settle with Kumar. During the past eight years while BJP was a partner in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Bihar, Kumar never allowed him to campaign for the alliance candidates in every election held in the state since November 2005 saying “What’s the use of the other (Narendra) Modi when we already have our own (Sushil) Modi?” His entry was literally banned in Bihar till the NDA government was in power there.
Modi got a “free run” in Bihar only after Kumar broke the alliance with the BJP in June 2013. It’s over the issue of Modi that Kumar had broken the alliance.
Before this, Kumar had cancelled the dinner hosted in honour of the visiting BJP leaders who had come to Patna to attend the party’s national executive in May 2010, over the issue of Modi, indicating the level of political bitterness between the two NDA leaders. The rivalry turned more bitter when Kumar projected himself as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the NDA saying “The leader of the coalition should have secular credentials and liberal frame of mind. It should be someone who has absolute faith in democratic values” in a oblique reference to Modi who is blamed for the month-long 2002 Gujarat riots. The kind of prevailing political animosity itself explains why wining Bihar elections now remains the prime agenda of Modi.
The election is equally important for chief minister Kumar as his political career depends on it. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the JD-U was destroyed in the wake of the massive Modi wave, bringing down its tally from 20 to two seats in the Lok Sabha. A further defeat will spell the death knell on his long political career as he will be out of power in Bihar too. He is also battling a massive rebellion within the party for denying tickets to many sitting lawmakers and deserving leaders owing to limited vacancies in the party.
Further, Kumar has been projected as the Chief Ministerial face of the Grand Secular Alliance, and thus, a defeat in the polls will certainly mean the rejection of Kumar and his policies. Apparently, that’s the reason Kumar looks desperate to win the elections at all costs. Kumar has repeatedly contradicted the BJP’s logic that the NDA swept to power due to their joint efforts and claimed NDA won elections because of his personal image. Well this election also looks like a referendum on Kumar’s image and policies.
Similar is the situation with RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav who is fighting for his party’s political survival now that he himself stands disqualified from contesting elections for his conviction and subsequent sentencing in the multi-million dollar fodder scam. The RJD is already out of power in Bihar for the past 10 years, while in Lok Sabha, it has only four party parliamentarians, though none from his own family. In the last LS polls, Prasad fielded his wife Rabri Devi and eldest daughter Misa Bharti to represent the family in the parliament, but both lost.
Such is the urgency of the situation that both Kumar and Prasad have now joined hands sinking their decade-old bitter political rivalry and are fighting the elections together in an alliance of which the Congress too is a part. Till the last LS polls, both the RJD and the JD-U had fought against each other and were blaming each other for the state’s ills. While Kumar had accused Prasad of ushering in “Aatank Raj” (a rule of terror) during RJD’s 15 year-old rule in Bihar, the RJD chief had routinely blamed Nitish Kumar government for “rampant corruption in government offices, red-tapism, bureaucratic dominance and turning the next generation in alcoholics by opening up liquor outlets in every village”. In the changed situation, though, both the leaders are defending each other, especially Kumar who faces uncomfortable questions over joining hands with the protagonists of the “Jungle Rule” at almost every forum.
Like his rival, Kumar’s prestige too is very much involved in this poll as he has indulged in a personal fight with Modi by openly questioning his leadership for making empty promises and rejecting his special financial package as a “repackaging of old schemes”. Further, Kumar has also come out with his own Rs2.70trillion development package for Bihar as a counter to Modi’s Rs1.25trillion package, sought help from Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal — BJP’s arch-rival — to win state elections and also lent his open support to Hardik Patel, the protagonist of the Patidar (or Patel) reservation campaign in Modi’s home state of Gujarat. Hardik too has reciprocated the gesture by declaring to support Kumar who, he said, “is from our community”.
Lastly, the poll outcome will also reveal if the days of the regional parties are over in Bihar. For the past quarter of a century, it’s either the RJD or the JD-U headed by prominent backward leaders Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar respectively, which has alternatively ruled Bihar. While the RJD ruled the state from 1990 to 2005, the JD-U, backed by BJP — its erstwhile coalition partner — has been in power since 2005. A victory by the BJP will, thus, automatically keep the regional parties out of power for the first time in 25 years. The BJP has already done it in states like Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Jharkhand except for Delhi where the Aam Adami Party emerged as the dark horse.
Will this happen in Bihar too or will the BJP have the last laugh?
