MUMBAI: When President Donald Trump hosts Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House on Monday, the two leaders will share much in common.
Both are political outsiders who champion a muscular, country-first nationalism. They enjoy feverish support from their vote bases while their governments assail critics and ignore — or encourage — hostility toward minority groups.
A senior White House official briefing reporters ahead of the visit Friday said Trump visited Mumbai during his business career and noted that the two men have more social media followers than any world leaders on earth, making sure to point out that Trump is slightly ahead of Modi.
But beyond the personalities, there are signs that the US-India partnership _ which grew closer under the Obama administration on issues such as climate change _ could be headed for rougher waters.
Here are some of the issues that could arise, and some more difficult topics that both men might try to skirt:
1. Immigration
India is not in Trump’s crosshairs like Mexico. But in April, Trump fired a warning shot by announcing a review of the H-1B visa program under which up to 65,000 skilled workers _ many of them computer engineers from India _ enter the US annually.
Leading members of the Trump administration _ including Attorney General Jeff Sessions and chief strategist Steve Bannon _ argue that the visas allow companies to hire lower-paid foreign workers instead of Americans.
In Congress, lawmakers from both parties are considering raising minimum salaries for H-1B workers and imposing other measures to protect American jobs. That has contributed to severe layoffs in the Indian outsourcing industry, adding to signs that India’s economic growth _ Modi’s signature issue _ is slackening.
Indians who have long viewed the US as a destination for jobs and higher education worry that racial intolerance is growing under Trump. The February shooting death of an Indian man in suburban Kansas City by a white man who reportedly shouted “Get out of my country” prompted wall-to-wall media coverage in India.
Still, analysts don’t expect Modi _ a notorious glad-hander who famously bear-hugged former President Barack Obama _ to confront Trump over immigration.
“It would be like waving a red flag in front of a bull,” said Dhruva Jaishankar, a fellow at the Brookings India think tank in New Delhi.
White House officials do not expect a confrontation either. The official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity Friday said the administration is still reviewing the H-1B program, making any discussions of specific changes premature.
2. Terrorism and regional security
While India has been targeted by fundamentalist Islamist groups, it views rival Pakistan, not transnational terrorist networks like Daesh, as its main threat. New Delhi accuses Pakistan-backed jihadist groups of attacking Indian military targets in the disputed Kashmir territory and fomenting growing civil unrest there.
Trump has made fighting Islamic State a priority, but India has not participated in the global military effort against the group. A few dozen Indians are reported to have joined the extremist network in Iraq and Syria, out of a Muslim population of more than 170 million.
As Trump weighs sending thousands more troops to Afghanistan, in part to battle Islamic State militants there, analysts say there is room for greater cooperation with India, which has helped train Afghan forces and provided development assistance while not deploying soldiers.
The Trump administration official speaking Friday praised India’s efforts in rebuilding Afghanistan’s institutions and promoting democracy, noting a $3 billion pledge of assistance to the country that the official said has generated good will among Afghan people.
The official said the White House expects to broaden other antiterrorism initiatives during the visit, increasing existing cooperation in screening, internet security, intelligence sharing and the designation of terrorist groups.
But Indian officials have long argued that the US must end its financial support for Pakistan’s military _ widely blamed for supporting Afghan insurgents _ and Trump has shown little sign of abandoning that troublesome ally.
3. China
The US outreach to India over the past two decades was based in part on an attempt to support a counterweight to Chinese influence in Asia. India has been alarmed to see China expand investments in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Maldives and other traditional allies.
But Trump’s flip-flops on China _ first accusing Beijing of currency manipulation before seeking its help to contain North Korea _ offer little comfort to India.
While India has sought to maintain cordial ties and expand trade with its much bigger neighbour, it has taken some more aggressive steps in recent months.
It boycotted a major summit Beijing hosted on its transnational Belt and Road Initiative, which includes building roads across Pakistani territory that India considers its own.
And it invited the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader, to the northern state of Arunachal Pradesh in April over strong Chinese objections.
These were major moves from the Indian perspective, but analysts say they didn’t look that big from Washington.
“In DC they see that as small ball,” Rossow said. “It doesn’t get people that excited about India being a player on the field.”
4. Trade and defence
This week, Lockheed Martin signed a deal with the Indian conglomerate Tata to produce F-16 fighter planes in India. If Lockheed wins the Indian military contract, it would move its ageing Fort Worth, Texas, production facility to India as its US plants produce other aircraft.
US officials also appear close to selling India’s navy 22 unarmed Guardian drones, manufactured by San Diego-based General Atomics, the first such purchase by a non-Nato country.
The White House would not confirm the drone sale Friday, citing a requirement that Congress be notified first. But the official called India’s defence modernisation a major strategic goal, also calling such deals important to increasing domestic defence jobs. “A strong India is good for the US.” she said.
Despite Trump’s rhetoric, analysts say trade and defence ties with India _ a major arms buyer _ could continue to expand because of support from Congress and business leaders. US and Indian officials say that deals such as the one struck by Lockheed Martin can benefit workers in both countries.
“There is an inherent tension between Trump’s vision of ‘America First’ and Prime Minister Modi’s idea of ‘Make in India,’ which aims to transform India into a global manufacturing hub,” said Milan Vaishnav, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Enlightened leadership — if it materialises — can take this tension and turn it into a win-win proposition.”
