When you face uncertainty, remember this word: cyclical. Cyclical understanding tells you what to pay attention to and can help you steer clear of unsubstantiated hypotheses. You know, the ones you hear over coffee that somehow manage to find their way into management meetings.

They usually begin with, “Well, I think … ” and are followed by opinion, without source, context or reliability.

Cycles, on the other hand, are the foundations for stability during uncertainty — and by nature, they are full of patterns, as famed investor, Ray Dalio, points out. The founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, says the world has operated like a machine throughout history: everything happens again and again.

To use this to your advantage, it’s important to get above yourself and your circumstances so you can gain historical perspective and see the patterns that emerge.

Sceptics sometimes regard cycles as the inventions of analysts and economists to justify their existence. The reality though, is that there is science behind cyclical analysis, and it begins with a simple question: “Has this happened before?”.

While history does not repeat itself exactly, what it does is show patterns that you should be considering.

For example, in boardrooms across the region, leaders are asking what’s going to happen in Qatar. Motivated by a mix of worry and curiosity, a multitude of speculative possibilities has ended up on the table, and of concern investors and businesses. After all, this has never happened before…Or has it?

Actually, it has. Qatar’s pattern since 1913 is that the emir either abdicates his rule or is deposed. Over the past century, three emirs have stepped down (one after a failed assassination attempt) and two others have been stepped down. The only one who hasn’t abdicated or been deposed is the current emir. So, a regime change is not an abnormal event in Qatar and given their cyclical pattern, history would predict it could happen again.

Of course, the Qatar topic is far from an isolated case. We do not necessarily know why or how, but the world goes through cycles of pretty much everything — climate, economics, geopolitics, politics, war and even life itself.

Crucially, however, learning isn’t necessarily cyclical. Whatever your uncertainties, as you understand patterns, you can begin to plan accordingly. So, rather than speculating, rely on an informed point of view — one that puts your circumstances in the cyclical context.

That said, it can be very difficult to see patterns when confronted with a challenging situation, especially when that situation is different to any you have faced before. In fact, most of the time, patterns are invisible to us until they’re pointed out.

The reason for this is partly because we don’t look for them, and partly because society doesn’t train us to recognise them very well in the first place. Instead of searching for patterns, most people look for difference.

From childhood, we’re taught to identify and describe the difference between two things, not the similarities. For example, a child might be asked to describe the difference between the numbers two and three, but rarely would he or she be asked to describe what is the same about them.

Our natural tendency is to analyse ... rather than to synthesise. We focus on the difference that drives uncertainty, instead of finding and understanding the patterns that provide ever-deeper insights and mastery.

When you take the time to put your circumstances in their cyclical context, you will begin to recognise the patterns. This is called experience. Don’t focus on just gathering more knowledge.

Rather, become familiar with the underlying patterns that serve as a model. Patterns highlight the way that something happens and reveal the relationships of the component parts. When you understand that, you can break the cycle of uncertainty.

Inevitably, you’re going to face moments when you’re not completely confident about how to proceed, and life or work may seem chaotic from time to time. But chaos is just a pattern you haven’t recognised.

So, when you’re amid uncertainty, ask yourself, “Has this happened before?”. Then allow the patterns in the cycle to remove uncertainty.

The writer is a CEO coach and author of “Leadership Dubai Style”. Contact him at tsw@tommyweir.com