Washington: The Obama administration along with its Arab and European allies are trying to push Syria's leader from power, but US officials acknowledge they see no good candidates to replace him, either inside the government or from the nation's fractured opposition.
That is due in no small part, the officials and experts on Syria said, to President Bashar Al Assad's determination to "coup proof" his rule to ensure no challenge emerged from within.
With the Al Assad family facing the greatest challenge to its 41-year rule, Syrian security forces killing thousands of protesters and bystanders, and US officials predicting the government will eventually fall, the question of who rules Syria has taken on added urgency. But there is, in short, no heir apparent. And it is unclear if one will emerge anytime soon.
"The ruling establishment there is so entrenched and it is so self-interested, even if, and this is purely speculative, even if they overthrew Al Assad, it's not clear that we would like his successor much more," said a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "There is no heir apparent."
Face of resistance
Similarly, among the rebels, "there is no opposition figure who has come out and become the face of Syrian resistance," the official said.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently tried to exacerbate any divisions within Syria's elite, especially its security forces. "Their refusal to continue this slaughter will make them heroes in the eyes of not only Syrians, but people of conscience everywhere," Clinton said.
Yet privately, officials say Al Assad, his close family and their inner circle will try to hang on to power as long as possible.
Breaking point
Clinton said she would bet against Al Assad staying in power and that "there will be a breaking point."
"That breaking point may come when there is a convergence of international, diplomatic and economic pressure and enough of a boil inside Syria to create the writing on the wall for [Al] Assad. But it is not going to be easy, and it may take more time," the US official said.
US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told a recent congressional hearing that one factor to watch is the "cohesion of the elites".
"And while we've seen signs of some of the seniors in the [Al] Assad regime making contingency plans to evacuate, move families, move financial resources, to this point they've held together," he said.
"[Al] Assad himself probably because of his psychological need to emulate his father, sees no other option, but to continue to try to crush the opposition," Clapper said.
"Short of a coup or something like that, [Al] Assad will hang in there and continue to do as he's done."
