Strong population growth across the region will ensure that many of the shopping centres currently being built do not turn into white elephants, says an independent research consultant.

And while the amount of shopping centre space has drastically grown since 1980, the rate of growth is now beginning to fall, said Simon Thomson, managing director, Retail International.

Speaking at the eighth Annual Middle East Shopping Centres Convention, Thomson raised three prominent questions that plague mall developers: Does the supply of shopping malls equal the demand for shopping malls? Where is the demand for the increasing number of shopping malls coming from? What are the dangers of having too many malls?

While Thomson did not say if demand for malls met with supply, he did say that, in overall terms, the peak for malls has been reached - but there are new trends that are developing in the more mature market.

The region's supply of shopping malls is well ahead on a per capital level compared to many other major cities.

In a survey of the region, Thomson discovered that out of 10 countries and 22 cities, there is about 4.4 million square meters of shopping space with a further 2.15 million square metres in the pipeline. By 2005, it is estimated there will be 6.5 million square metres.

Abu Dhabi, Jeddah, Beirut, Doha, Cairo, Riyadh, Bahrain, Alexandria, Sharjah and Kuwait and Dubai are all expected to have more than 250,000 square metres of shopping space by 2005.

It is expected that Dubai's level will exceed 500,000 square metres. While the amount of shopping centre space has "really developed" since 1980 and is still forecast to do so until 2025, "the rate of growth is now beginning to fall. By 2005, the demand of new space will be in decline."

In 1987, up to 70 per cent of total space for shopping centres was in the pipeline. However, by 2005, it is expected the level will be down to less than 25 per cent.

This is because the regional market is reaching a "stage of maturity." The market is becoming increasingly competitive and developers are being forced to come up with ever more interesting ideas.

Currently, 30 per cent of the malls in the region have supermarkets as their anchors. "Increasingly, we are looking at the mixed-use malls such as downtown, waterside, airports and railways. Abu Dhabi Mall is a good example and so is Dubai Marina."

So where is the demand for the increasing number of shopping malls coming from? Thomson says the malls will be filled thanks to population growth.

In 1977, there were less than 15 million GCC nationals, but by 2025 it is expected there will be more than 50 million, he said citing an UN report.

Currently the U.S. leads the field with the highest level of retail space per capita: apparently there is 20 square feet of shopping space per person, but Dubai and Singapore rank highly with almost 7 square feet. Other Middle East cities have less than 5 square feet.

Thomson warned that the danger of having too many malls included vacant units and poorly managed centres. And if there are too many shops, it could lead to lower rents.

With increasing competition, malls are going to have to come up with innovations to get their share of shoppers through the doors.

"Developers and retailers have to be innovative - there are going to be challenges and there needs to be innovation - for example there will be indoor ski slopes, extreme sports, and in Germany there is indoor beach volleyball."